Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Gaining or Losing Power Paper Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Gaining or Losing Power Paper - Essay Example Weiner, a native of New York City and former New York City Council member, has been famous for his straight-forward liberal views and his fiery speeches on the floor of the US House of Representatives (BBC News, 2011). Weiner was forced to resign due to his scandalous online flirtations. After losing political power, Weiner is planning to return back in politics through his wife, Abedin who has been instrumental by supporting Weiner in amassing funds and participating in public events. Weiner knows that winds are not blowing politically in his favor, as â€Å"months ago† he spoke to Bill and Hillary Clinton, who have not backed any candidate in the mayoral race. As he said, â€Å"I have given wide berth to my colleagues in public life because I know I have a lot to prove to them (Bacon, 2013). Weiner is the perfect example of how public leaders gain and lose power in public policy environment. Factors such as communication, leadership, constituents, and organization played a significant role in his gaining and losing power. Weiner’s candidature for the rank of New York mayor was risked through his extra-marital sexting but the news that he might be playing a role in Hillary Rodham Clinton’s 2016 presidential election, if it happens (Bacon, 2013). It only indicates that political power and those who become instrumental for their party leaders in gaining that political power whatever ethical irregularities they commit are ignored by their leaders and the masses after an interval of time. Weier’s wife, Huma Abedin, is sure that future political prospects are going to brighten up for Weiner. It shows that various political ranks like that of Weiner play a significant role as constituents of both losing and gaining power. Weiner (Bacon, 2013) has been forthcoming in accepting his scandalous actions publically for hurting his wife’s political career growth for getting distanced for her insider role with Clinton. This kind of commun ication is going to help Weiner in the long run, as people start viewing the unethical traits of their leaders from human perspective by not awarding lifelong punishment to them and welcoming them back in the leading political environment. Weiner’s own political dignity as US Congressman was endangered when it was revealed that he sent underpants photo, compelling him to publically apologize to his family and his voters although he remained adamant on not submitting his resignation over this revelation. His public acceptance through a news conference, telling that he was "deeply ashamed of my terrible judgment," could possibly break the ice for his political ambitions if it is revealed that he might be engaged for launching a campaign in favor of Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016 presidential election or there is a possibility that that such falsified communication from Weiner and his wife’s side could bring him and his wife back in the public limelight, giving the expres sion that his mistakes of the past have been forgotten, letting him to start afresh. It could be a communication tactic as well because until this news is confirmed by Clinton herself, nothing can be said for sure (BBC News, 2011). There has been a history of political figures committing blasphemy but with a fine line differentiating their return back, as in the case of Bill Clinton, the US president who survived in office amidst his affair with Monica Lewinsky. And that fine line creating the difference and letting Clinton not lose power has been Clinton’s remark, stating: â€Å"I did not have sexual relations with that woman† (BBC News, 2011). Others who had to lose power include Eliot Spitzer, Governor of New York, who has been a regular visitor of prostitutes from the Emperors Club VIP agency and had to resign in March 2008; Chris Lee, New York

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Weak Gravitational Lensing

Weak Gravitational Lensing Introduction Gravitational lensing is a very resourceful phenomenon that widely used in astronomy measurement. It contains many aspects of which the strong, weak, and microlensing are well established by observable evidence. The weak gravitational lensing is an active area. Weak gravitational lensing that we can observe is usually caused by large-scale cosmic bodies such as clusters and voids. Generally, gravitational lensing has the advantage of directly measuring or comparing the mass of the object. This is an advantage comparing with the conventional method such as dynamical methods and the diffuse X-ray emission. Those methods require strong assumptions of either dynamical state or composition (Bartelmann Schneider 2001). Thus, weak gravitational lensing has the prospect of leading us to understand more about the voids and clusters that other regular measurement could not achieve, which can further lead to verifying the existence and possible composition of dark matter. Method (How to measure calculate) Gravitational Lensing Effect Gravitational lensing is the phenomenon that the light bundles bent when traveling by massive cosmic bodies due to the effect of gravitational force. In astrophysics photos, strong gravitational lensing would result in prominent arc or arclets (smaller arcs). However, weak gravitational lensing is relatively less noticeable since that the phenomenon only slightly distort the background galaxies. This distortion can be divided into two: convergence and shear. The convergence would result in magnification of the background while the shear would change the ellipticity of the background galaxies we observe. We show a simplistic example for weak gravitational lensing as Fig.1 shows. One thing to mention is that we used thin lens approximation for the example. This means that we assume the lensing effect take place in a surface, which is usually a good approximation because the distance from the background to the foreground lens and from foreground lens to observer are much long comparing the size of a cluster or void. Considering a deflection caused by a point mass M. When a bundle of light pass through the weak gravitational field near it. The deflection angle predicted by general relativity is twice the amount of Newtonian prediction where impact factor (Schwarzschild radius), since the gravitational field is relatively small. Now considering that in Fig.1,, which is valid for most weak gravitational lensing application, it can be proven that Fig.1 An illustration of a typical gravitational lensing with S the source, O the observer and L the massive object The above can be defined as scaled deflection angle, which can also be represented by surface density where the denotes convergence and can be represented by surface mass density and critical surface density : with where the distance is angular diameter distance. The critical surface density depends on the redshift of source and lens (Bartelmann Schneider 2001), the convergence () represents the strength of the lensing. Generally, represents weak lensing. Eq. (3) indicates that the deflection angle can also be written as the gradient of the deflection potential As, it can be prove that The gravitational lensing doesnt change the frequency of the photons, the deflection angles are all the same for any frequency (i.e. no dispersion). Considering that no photon has been emitted or absorbed and omit the change of gravitational potential over time, Liouvilles theorem Since the lens map can be linearized in weak gravitational field, the distortion of images is then described by the Jacobian matrix where we need to introduced the shear components Magnification factor in respect to fluxes can be represented by In case of application, the reduced gravitational shear is more commonly used (Bartelmann Schneider 2001) Weak Lensing by Voids In Fig.1, if we assume L is the centre of a void, instead, then the figure can illustrate the example for weak lensing in a void. Note that weak lensing caused by clusters act like a convex lens, where it converge the light coming through, while those caused by voids are like concave lens, where the light is diverged. Though technically, they do not work the same as classical lensing since they do not have foci. This is because that the voids are and underdense and it is actually the mass outside the void that bend the light. Considering the fact that voids are also relatively large, the change of gravity potential along radius would not be as fast as in massive clusters. The weak lensing caused by voids are quite hard to detect (Amendola et al. 1999). Another essential thing is to have a general model for voids. Due to the mass distribution of void, we shall assume it is a uniform spherical underdensity surrounded by overdense shell. While this is mere an ideal assumption, this model can still capture the main features for the voids (Amendola et al. 1999). Implications Clowe (2006) has put a convincing result with the help of weak gravitational lensing to indicate the existence of dark matter. During the collision of two clusters, they compare the mass of the plasma and of the whole clusters. The plasma was the dominant baryonic component. However, when they compared plasma distribution in X-ray and the cluster gravitational potential by weak lensing, the ratio of plasma/whole cluster fitted better in the cluster model with the dark matter. More recent research have shown thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ As we have mentioned that void is harder to detect due to its size and underdensity. In practice, the size measurement of an individual void in galaxy redshift surveys will be very noisy due to sparse sampling in the underdense region. That is one of the reasons why we need to get the void stacked to determine the weak lensing. Theoretical calculations by Krause et al. (2012) and numerical simulations by Higuchi, Oguri Hamana (2013) suggest that stacking many voids will increase the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the lensing observables, which may result in the detection of the effect with high significance, the lensing signals measured by stacking large numbers of voids with similar sizes will also constrain the radial profile of voids. It is worthwhile to mention that the stacked method was first used in detection of weak lensing caused by clusters. However, with the improvement of astronomical imaging, the weak lensing for an individual cluster is much easier to detect. Melchior et al. (2014) used the method to stack 901 voids detected in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SSDS) DR7. They combined the voids with the coordinate, where is the radius of individual void. Their research indicates that voids are generally self-similar and that large voids may does not fit compensated void model as smaller voids do. This means that the density around large void, even for a sufficient large radius beyond, may still be lower than the average density. Clampitt Jain (2015) further extend the stacking method. They used a special method to identify the voids and then filter to remain the ones with good quality. They estimated S/N to be 7, which is a relatively high rate for void lensing. They gave a model-independent statement of void properties. Limitations One intrinsic problem for weak lensing is ellipticity noise. It denotes the fact that each background galaxy has its own ellipticity and orientation. The ellipticity noise is often of the same level of the distortion or even larger (Bartelmann Schneider 2001). Another key limitation of the gravitational lensing methodology could be that it only produces a two-dimensional map of k and hence raises the possibility that structures seen in the map are caused by physically unrelated masses along the line of sight (Clowe et al. 2006). Reference Amendola, L., Frieman, J. A., Waga, I. (1999). Weak gravitational lensing by voids. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 309(2), 465-473. Bartelmann, M., Schneider, P. (2001). Weak gravitational lensing. Physics Reports, 340(4), 291-472. Clampitt, J., Jain, B. (2015). Lensing measurements of the mass distribution in SDSS voids. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 454(4), 3357-3365. Clowe, D., BradaÄ , M., Gonzalez, A. H., Markevitch, M., Randall, S. W., Jones, C., Zaritsky, D. (2006). A direct empirical proof of the existence of dark matter. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 648(2), L109. Higuchi, Y., Oguri, M., Hamana, T. (2013). Measuring the mass distribution of voids with stacked weak lensing. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 432(2), 1021-1031. Kaiser, N., Squires, G. (1993). Mapping the dark matter with weak gravitational lensing. The Astrophysical Journal, 404, 441-450. Krause, E., Chang, T. C., Dorà ©, O., Umetsu, K. (2012). The weight of emptiness: the gravitational lensing signal of stacked voids. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 762(2), L20. Melchior, P., Sutter, P. M., Sheldon, E. S., Krause, E., Wandelt, B. D. (2014). First measurement of gravitational lensing by cosmic voids in SDSS. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 440(4), 2922-2927.      

Friday, October 25, 2019

William Farrell’s Men as Success Objects Essay -- Rhetorical Analysis

William Farrell’s â€Å"Men as Success Objects† Identity is a subject commonly discussed within literature. In William Farrell’s essay entitled â€Å"Men as Success Objects† this subject is the object of much scrutiny. Farrell analyzes the role of gender in today’s society and states that male identity is in a condition where male insecurities about success, their appearance, and females have left most men in today’s society in dire straights. Compounded by prevailing ultra-feminist ideals, society has become saturated by the â€Å"men are jerks† mentality. This condition can be seen in various aspects of society such as commercials, television programs, even greeting cards (Farrell, 186). While some may not agree with his opinions on the state of male identity, Farrell uses a number of rhetorical strategies and literary devices such as an objective point of view, an intellectual tone, and appeals to both logos and ethos in order to effectively convey belief that men are treated as â€Å"succ ess objects† in today’s society. In discussing the subject of male identity, especially as compared to female identity, Farrell is very careful to remain very objective throughout his rhetoric. Part of his balanced approach to proving his argument, is the use of an objective point of view. Farrell’s deliberate objectivity can be seen in aspects of his piece such as his word choice, free of denotative language, his lack of any first hand anecdotes, a removal of any indication of his gender (except his name), and a strict third person style throughout his piece. All of these characteristics combine to make his argument effective to a large demographic of people, unlike many pieces on gender identity, whose audience is usually limited to at most a spe... ...emotional appeal, Farrell improves his argument by making it objective, understandable, and relatable. Debates over gender are always difficult to win. Each side has its own experience and it is impossible for the other side to completely understand the others perspective. In William Farrell’s essay â€Å"Men as Success Objects† the subject of male identity is discussed as objectively as a person of either gender could do. Through the use of an objective point of view, an intellectual tone, and appeals to both logos and ethos Farrell’s argument becomes both valid an effective. Through his use of rhetorical devices Farrell tells people what he knows and changes what they think. Works Cited Farrell, William. â€Å"Men as Success Objects.† Constructing Others Constructing Ourselves. Ed. Gruber, Sibylle et al. Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall/Hunt Publishing. 2002. 185-88. William Farrell’s Men as Success Objects Essay -- Rhetorical Analysis William Farrell’s â€Å"Men as Success Objects† Identity is a subject commonly discussed within literature. In William Farrell’s essay entitled â€Å"Men as Success Objects† this subject is the object of much scrutiny. Farrell analyzes the role of gender in today’s society and states that male identity is in a condition where male insecurities about success, their appearance, and females have left most men in today’s society in dire straights. Compounded by prevailing ultra-feminist ideals, society has become saturated by the â€Å"men are jerks† mentality. This condition can be seen in various aspects of society such as commercials, television programs, even greeting cards (Farrell, 186). While some may not agree with his opinions on the state of male identity, Farrell uses a number of rhetorical strategies and literary devices such as an objective point of view, an intellectual tone, and appeals to both logos and ethos in order to effectively convey belief that men are treated as â€Å"succ ess objects† in today’s society. In discussing the subject of male identity, especially as compared to female identity, Farrell is very careful to remain very objective throughout his rhetoric. Part of his balanced approach to proving his argument, is the use of an objective point of view. Farrell’s deliberate objectivity can be seen in aspects of his piece such as his word choice, free of denotative language, his lack of any first hand anecdotes, a removal of any indication of his gender (except his name), and a strict third person style throughout his piece. All of these characteristics combine to make his argument effective to a large demographic of people, unlike many pieces on gender identity, whose audience is usually limited to at most a spe... ...emotional appeal, Farrell improves his argument by making it objective, understandable, and relatable. Debates over gender are always difficult to win. Each side has its own experience and it is impossible for the other side to completely understand the others perspective. In William Farrell’s essay â€Å"Men as Success Objects† the subject of male identity is discussed as objectively as a person of either gender could do. Through the use of an objective point of view, an intellectual tone, and appeals to both logos and ethos Farrell’s argument becomes both valid an effective. Through his use of rhetorical devices Farrell tells people what he knows and changes what they think. Works Cited Farrell, William. â€Å"Men as Success Objects.† Constructing Others Constructing Ourselves. Ed. Gruber, Sibylle et al. Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall/Hunt Publishing. 2002. 185-88.

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Performance Appraisal Essay

Performance appraisals are designed to give an objective on the evaluation of an employee’s performance and also outline the measures or development for improvement that would be essential to the organization to move ahead (Chandra & Frank, 2004). In the healthcare system, there is an unsatisfied measure that the outside companies are used to perform these appraisals. The staff would like to do the evaluations themselves so that there is a relationship built between the employer-employee. I will look to determine what an employee appraisal consists of, how healthcare tracks the quality of work that is done by an employee. A mock performance appraisal will be evaluated based upon the scores that the employee received and from those scores will look to develop an action plan for recommendation to improve the employee’s quality of work. There will be an establishment of the current trends of recruiting, selection, and development as well as the future trends as to where employee appraisals will be in the future based on the effectiveness of new technology and theories. Performance Appraisal Performance appraisals are important to the organizational productivity and the career development of an employee (epa. ov). A current performance appraisal was conducted on an Environmentalist Senior Government employee. This review was completed based upon the duties and responsibilities of this employee in an in depth performance evaluation. Inside of the evaluation included a breakdown of the performance of the goal and objectives that was to be performance by the employee. By analyzing the goals and objectives a semi-annual inspection was performed, a semiannual monitoring was performed, an in-service training evaluation, and a 26-30 day are center inspection took place. This appraisal will affect the overall job performance of this individual and will depend upon the future contributions that this employee will have within the organization. Tracking Quality of Work The best practice is to have a standardized, quantified, and automated employee review process that is essential to track employee progress and maximize productivity in the workplace (employeeperformance. com). The practice of emPerform would be the best practice to use for employers to track performance. EmPerform is an easy-to-use web-based employee performance management solution that automates vital employee performance management processes. These would include online appraisals, goal management, 360 degree multi-rated reviews, online surveys, succession planning, compensation management, development plans, and reporting and analytics (emperform. com). In order track the review process documentation should be provided to the employee to keep towards providing a record of all the efforts they have attempted by employee to avoid any dismissal of employment or any other discrepancies. Mock Performance Appraisal Based upon the performance appraisal of the employee there are areas that she achieves in based upon the categories of leadership, customer focus, job knowledge, as well as organization and productivity. On the other hand, there are areas that need improvement and does not exceed or achieve the job description in detail that should be put into place on a daily basis. The score of 44 was calculated and per each category the employee received 36 points of achievable expectations and 8 points that stood out for requirement improvement. Once the scores were added up to (44/20) and tallied there was a score of 2. 2 of the employee performance. Because of the areas that need improvement, there should a laid out action plan between the employee and employer as to how these goals can be achieved for success for future performance appraisals. The best practices that would provide a fair and accurate performance appraisal would be to support an employee with favorable feedback. In order to achieve the improvement within the areas, there should be a clear erformance of communication of the expectations. Development of educational skills should be provided in a learning capacity so the employee will know what to do and what not to do. In addition, Greguras et al. (2003) research has shown that the purpose of the rating (decision-making versus development) affects the ratings that are observed. Action Plan Recommendation Based on scores of the employee the best feedback for an action plan recommendation would be a 360-feedba ck. Within the 360 feedback it would be a tool of support between the employee-employer conversations. It can be a powerful element of objectivity that will make an employee better understand their strengths and blind spots of their job performance. The best practices to implement the 360 feedback would be to ensure that the organization is ready for this evaluation process, make sure that the purpose is clear for using this tool, start at the top to select the right tool, and eliminate any destructive feedback towards an employee (Horowitz, 2008). The purpose of this action plan towards a 360 feedback give an employee a chance to resolve a performance that would need improvement and also give the supervisor a guidance tool and regular on monitoring towards measuring the progress of the employees future appraisals. Current Trends In today’s society of completing performance appraisals for the employees, human resources are starting to come under fire as to how successful performance appraisals really are. With the emphasis on teamwork, shared leadership, and an ongoing struggle to find and retain qualified employees, it’s a model that is falling increasing out of favor (Fandray, 2011). The most important objective towards successful appraisals within performance management should provide strength of guidance to their employee on the best strategy in the direction of improvement. A strong succession plan aims to present a foot print to probabilities to get to the next level of the job. Although there are organizations that are finding the downfalls of performance appraisals, it is an ongoing process to fine tune what could make future appraisals a trend to build strength between employee and employer. Future Trends Performance appraisal can be the future to enhance communication and productivity with employees. Executives have stated that they have observed a trend towards more frequent reviews aimed at boosting future achievement rather than grading past activity (Fleming, 2003). Hiller, a vice president of administration for Stanford Federal Credit Union, in California, uses an employee performance plan based on accountabilities determined by the job, employee, and the manager. The plan lists goals or behaviors associated with each accountability, which are reviewed on a quarterly basis(Fleming, 2003). I have to say that accountability should be the one of the main reviews towards performance appraisals amongst employees. In the healthcare the future trends of employee appraisals will be the eAppraisal Healthcare. Halogen eAppraisal healthcare will offers organizations an affordable and convenient way to automate time consuming paper-based appraisal processes. It will better enable an organization to perform clinical competency checklists and even orientation checklists (aha-solutions. org). With this appraisals systems health care will be more than in the 21 century it will give providers a more professional quality of giving appraisals that will empower human resources strategy and they will always be ready for the surveyors from the Joint Commission, OSHA, ACHA, or any other regulatory agency. The future trends will hope bright towards computers and making paper-based appraisals nonexistent. Conclusion A good performance appraisal can either break or make an organization as well as an employee’s job status. It can bring a development of organizational skills for the staff member to give a bigger picture as to what is expected of them, and provides information for the employer as to whether or not that employee should receive a raises, promotion, or dismissal from the job altogether. An effective system should be used to break the barriers of the downfalls within the organizations to help develop employees mentally and physical stability that companies look for from their staff. Appraisals can be helpful in many ways to build confidence, but on the other hand when they are delivered the atmosphere and the communication are key components to the outlook of what will come in the future. Appraisals often go into a halo effect, this takes place when the supervisor outlook of the staff member is based on a specific characteristic, in regards to appearance as well as intelligence (Tvedt, 1986). Employee Appraisals will always be a tool that will have constant positives and negatives, but it is up to how it is delivered and pursued to bring a successful outcome.

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Amazon Case study

Question 1In what ways does Bezos’s decision to develop and deliver the Kindle and Kindle Fire show systematic and intuitive thinking?I think that Bezo’s decision to develop and to deliver the Kindle show systematic and intuitive thinking through competitive strategy to assure the success of the company. Competitive strategy refers to a strategy that is designed to create value for customers by providing lower prices or unique features not offered by rival organizations. This is proven based on Amazon’s quarterly filing ending March 31,2010 when their net sales had increased to 45% in the electronics category. Jeff Bezo, CEO of Amazon.com says â€Å" as we continue to offer increased selection, lower prices and additional product lines within our electronics and other general merchandise category, we expect to see the relative mix of sales from this category increase!†Another reason would be seeing an opportunity only Amazon.com can give long form reading to be digitalized. They have analyzed their strengths and capacities that helped them develop a new innovation in the market. From there, they were able to produce a refined product called Kindle that has the ability to review and remember more what a person reads follow people of interest and allows one to see their Public notes and manage his books, highlights, and notes.Question 2How do you describe the competitive risk in Amazon’s environment as Wal-Mart, Barnes and Noble, and other retailers strengthen their online offerings?Having the most of the services that Amazon provides myself it is my go to place for every time I am trying to make a purchase. In my opinion, since Amazon has established a great amount of customers and being the one of the most organized and friendly online place where you can purchase practically anything, it will be hard for other competitors to achieve such results. Also the greatest benefit to some people is not paying taxes on the products tha t they purchase which is currently being disused by the Government to have amazon costumers to pay a tax.Question 3Amazon is continuously looking for new markets to exploit. As CEO Bezos addresses the strategic opportunity of delivering streaming video, he calls on you for advice. Amazon’s presence and technology are already established in this market. But what decision error and traps might cause him to make the wrong decisions regarding Amazon’s future moves, and why? What can he do to best avoid these mistakes?Question 4What are the latest initiatives coming out of Amazon? How do they stack up in relation to actual or potential competition? How has the decision to produce the Fire turned out? Is Bezos making the right decisions as he guides the firm through today’s many business challenges?Latest initiatives that are coming out, is Prime membership.The benefits include:FREE Two-Day Shipping on eligible items. Note: If the item you're ordering is out of stock or unavailable to ship, we'll get it to you two days after it's back in stock. Remember to check the cut-off time shown on the detail page. Items are delivered every day but Sunday, and orders over $1300 may require a signature.FREE Standard Shipping on eligible items. FREE No-Rush Delivery (typical delivery one week after placing an order). Note: You may receive promotional credit for selecting No-Rush Shipping. Credit will be automatically applied to your Amazon.com account once the first package from a No-Rush Shipping-eligible order ships. You'll receive an e-mail as soon as the credit is available. You may select No-Rush Shipping as many times as it's offered to you, but you won't be eligible for the credit if you cancel your No-Rush Shipping order or return items from it.Shipping Upgrades to expedite delivery. Free Prime Instant Video access for paid or free trial members in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Note: Instant Video isn't available to customers receiving free Amazon Prime shipping benefits through Amazon Student, Amazon Mom, or as guests of another membership.Kindle Owners' Lending Library access to members in the U.S. For more information, go to Kindle Owners' Lending Library. Note: Customers in a paid membership, free trial or receiving a free month of Prime benefits with a Kindle Fire activation are eligible. The Kindle device must be associated with the Prime account that's eligible for the benefit.Early access for members in the U.S. to download a new book for free every month from the Kindle First picks. For more information, go to Kindle First.An estimated 200 million fire tablets have been shipped worldwide since 2009 and another 1 billion are predicted to ship over the next five years. Market intelligence firm ABI Research estimates that 22% of the U.S. tablet users spend $50 or more per month and 9% spend $100 or more – much higher than the spending levels observed for smartphone users. The growing popularity of Amazon’s Kindl e Fire range could mean that a major share of this spending will be re-directed to Amazon’s online storefronts. Since Kindle devices are optimized to run on Amazon’s services, we expect them to drive greater adoption of Amazon’s services. We believe that the content business comprising eBooks and movie/music streaming will be the biggest gainer from the trend.In my opinion he is defiantly making the right moves especially in todays business world.

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Different treatments of osteoporosis can increase or prevent breast cancer in women The WritePass Journal

Different treatments of osteoporosis can increase or prevent breast cancer in women Different treatments of osteoporosis can increase or prevent breast cancer in women IntroductionTreatments   Activation of RANK-ligand leads to breast cancer ReferencesRelated Introduction Osteoporosis is a progressive disease where bone catabolism increases faster than its formation decreasing the density of bones which results in a great bone weakness. Osteoporosis is associated with a great level of calcium loss making the bones very porous and fragile.   Osteoporosis is a disease that affects 1 in 3 women and 1 in 12 men and can cause death in a severely fractured hip. Osteoporosis treatments targets bone cells to prevent bone weakening. Additionally, it also significantly reduces menopausal symptoms but increase the risk of breast cancer development. However, other treatments and specific inhibition factors can prevent or delay the formation of breast cancer in women. Bones hold 99% of the body’s calcium which is involved in the daily turnover of the bones. Two essential cells are involved in the daily turnover of the bones. Osteoblasts, cells responsible for the bone formation taking place by producing a matrix of collagen which becomes mineralised. Osteoclasts cells functions in the breakdown and resorption of the bone tissue. Skeletal homeostasis is maintained through a balance between the activity of osteoblasts and osteoclasts. The leading cause for osteoporosis is the lack of certain hormones and particularly oestrogen in women. This is because bone loss takes place as a result of oestrogen deficiency. In post-menopausal women an excessive resorption takes place causing bone weakness (osteopenia) and over time osteoporosis.6 During menopause osteoblasts fail to function properly and bone weakening rapidly occurs due to oestrogen levels significantly dropping. Therefore, the risk of osteoporosis in post-menopausal women increases due to a decline in oestrogen levels. Oestrogen regulates the activity of osteoclasts cells which results in slowing the dissolving of the bones. Treatments Hormones are the most crucial modulators of bone formation as it has a direct effect on the bones by interacting with receptors. Treatments such as hormone replacements therapy (HRT) are widely used to entirely restore the rate of post-menopausal loss.1 HRT protects against thinning of the bones by increasing the availability of oestrogen levels in the body.   It has a direct effect on cells by interacting with receptors at the surface of the cell. Its effect is mediated through a receptor called oestrogen receptor ÃŽ ±. The hormone binds to the receptor and is transported to the nucleus where receptor hormone acts as a switch to turn on the gene. However, many severe side effects are associated with this type of treatments such as breast cancer. Other treatments such as selective oestrogen receptor modulator (SERM) also target oestrogen receptors in the body. SERM’s act as agonist or antagonist depending on different tissues in the body, it blocks oestrogen functioning in various parts of the body in order to increase the availability of the hormone in receptors located inside the bones for increased bone formation. Raloxifene is a selective oestrogen receptor modulator that has oestrogenic actions on the bone and anti-oestrogenic actions on other tissues such as the breast and the uterus. However, both treatments HRT and SERM are highly effective in alleviating menopausal symptoms. 4   Activation of RANK-ligand leads to breast cancer Receptor activator nuclear factor (RANK) is a protein that is involved in the activation of bone formation and regulation of osteoclastic bone resorption. It acts primarily as a signal pathway to increase bone removal. Bone resorption is dependent on a cytokine known as RANK-L. RANK binds to its receptor RANK-L when expressed by the osteoclasts to activate and stimulate the osteoclastic formation which leads to bone resorption. HRT triggers the RANK-L protein in breast cells which allows it to multiply causing a tumour. Studies and researches have shown that the activation of RANK is responsible for causing cancer in patients with osteoporosis.3 Therefore, blocking the RANK pathway with a drug can prevent breast cancer and also stop normal bone destruction. Studies showed that women taking HRT had a higher rate of developing breast cancer. After 5 years of follow up, women taking these hormones had a 20% increase in breast cancer risk compared with placebo group. Therefore, the longer HRT medication is taken for, the greater the risk of breast cancer. In the fourth year and thereafter, breast cancer rates were higher in the oestrogen group with a significant trend of increasing breast cancer over time. Raloxifene shows a reduced incidence of breast cancer by 27% compared to HRT. A statistically significant reduction in the incidence of breast cancer is shown among women taking raloxifene compared with the placebo group.5 According to the graph above raloxifene appeared to be most effective in reducing the incidence of breast cancer compared to HRT. HRT aims to reduce the level of bones affected by increasing oestrogen in the body. However, it is one of the leading causes for breast cancer in women. Raloxifene is an alternative treatment used for patients with osteoporosis to reduce the level of bone dissolving and preventing severe side effects such as breast cancer. A separate study has shown that women who have abandoned HRT treatment had reduced breast cancer rates by 6%.2A study contradicting, based on several years of clinical trials shows that HRT is not the direct cause for breast cancer as women are at an elevated risk of developing breast cancer with age. Lifestyle also plays a great role in breast cancer development, the study reported that standard way of living such as smoking, fish intake, working on a night shift and birth weight increases the relative risk of breast cancer development and not synthetic hormones alone.1 Therefore if women were to abandon HRT drugs, normal daily life routine should also be consider ed in order to reduce the risk of breast cancer. References Bluming A Z. (2009). Hormone Replacement Therapy: Real Concerns and  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   False Alarms. The Cancer Journal. 15 (2), 93-104.   Callaway E. (2010). Bone-disease drug could treat breast cancer. Nature.10 (3). Castellano D et al. (2011).The Role of RANK-Ligand Inhibition in Cancer: The Story of Denosumab. The Oncologist. 16 (2), 135-146. H Michael. (2007). Differential effects of selective oestrogen receptor. British Journal of Pharmacology. 151 (8), 384-395. Natl J. (2008). Reduced Incidence of Invasive Breast Cancer With Raloxifene Among Women. Cancer Inst. 100 (12), 854-861. Sambrook P. (2006). Osteoporosis. The Lancet. 367 (3), 2010-2018. Watanabe K et al. (2010).Osteocytes in Normal Physiology and Osteoporosis. Springer. 2 (8), 224–232.

Monday, October 21, 2019

Free Essays on Disabilities And Society

Final Response Throughout my life, I have not been the most comfortable around people with disabilities. I have always had a sort of fear of these people, probably mostly because I didn’t know or understand anything about them. My â€Å"individual comfort level† around people with disabilities was not very high going into this semester, and I can’t say that is extremely high now. However, I do feel far more secure in interacting with people with disabilities after completing the Disability and Society course. When I was in elementary school I was exposed to many children with disabilities my school had a special program for children with disabilities. Though these children were always around, I had somewhat of a fear for them because I didn’t understand the way the acted, and only real interaction I had with them was watching them, because they were segregated from the â€Å"normies†, or when one of them would run away from their teacher and mix in with the rest of the kids at the school. We never learned anything about the children with disabilities, so I had no idea why they acted the way they did and I had an uneasiness about them. My high school also had a program for people with disabilities, but again they were separated and I was never taught anything about their disorders. My early experiences with people with disabilities sort of set the way I thought about these people until I went through Disability and Society. In our class, we had many guest speakers, videos and class discussions that helped me increase my â€Å"individual comfort level† around people with disabilities. The most recent speaker we had, and the one that affected me the most was Sean Stephenson. Sean really helped my comfort level regarding people with disabilities because of the way he spoke to us. Though he is a little different than us in appearance, Sean is very intelligent and has accomplished a lot in spite of his hardships. Sea... Free Essays on Disabilities And Society Free Essays on Disabilities And Society Final Response Throughout my life, I have not been the most comfortable around people with disabilities. I have always had a sort of fear of these people, probably mostly because I didn’t know or understand anything about them. My â€Å"individual comfort level† around people with disabilities was not very high going into this semester, and I can’t say that is extremely high now. However, I do feel far more secure in interacting with people with disabilities after completing the Disability and Society course. When I was in elementary school I was exposed to many children with disabilities my school had a special program for children with disabilities. Though these children were always around, I had somewhat of a fear for them because I didn’t understand the way the acted, and only real interaction I had with them was watching them, because they were segregated from the â€Å"normies†, or when one of them would run away from their teacher and mix in with the rest of the kids at the school. We never learned anything about the children with disabilities, so I had no idea why they acted the way they did and I had an uneasiness about them. My high school also had a program for people with disabilities, but again they were separated and I was never taught anything about their disorders. My early experiences with people with disabilities sort of set the way I thought about these people until I went through Disability and Society. In our class, we had many guest speakers, videos and class discussions that helped me increase my â€Å"individual comfort level† around people with disabilities. The most recent speaker we had, and the one that affected me the most was Sean Stephenson. Sean really helped my comfort level regarding people with disabilities because of the way he spoke to us. Though he is a little different than us in appearance, Sean is very intelligent and has accomplished a lot in spite of his hardships. Sea...

Sunday, October 20, 2019

Praises to the Correct Use of The Semicolon

Praises to the Correct Use of The Semicolon Praises to the Correct Use of The Semicolon Praises to the Correct Use of The Semicolon By Daniel Scocco Lana, one of our readers, pointed me to a very interesting article over the NY Times. Titled Celebrating the Semicolon in a Most Unlikely Location, the article describes how the reporter was pleasantly surprised by finding an erudite and correct use of the semicolon on a subway sign. â€Å"Please put it in a trash can,† riders are reminded. After which Neil Neches, an erudite writer in the transit agency’s marketing and service information department, inserted a semicolon. The rest of the sentence reads, â€Å"that’s good news for everyone.† Semicolon sightings in the city are unusual, period, much less in exhortations drafted by committees of civil servants. In literature and journalism, not to mention in advertising, the semicolon has been largely jettisoned as a pretentious anachronism. The article argues that most people avoid using the semicolon merely because they are not sure about it. We covered it in the past, specifically outlining the differences between the colon and the semicolon. If you need a reminder, the article itself describes how it should be used: Americans, in particular, prefer shorter sentences without, as style books advise, that distinct division (the semicolon) between statements that are closely related but require a separation more prolonged than a conjunction and more emphatic than a comma. Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Punctuation category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:Has vs. HadThe Parts of a WordDissatisfied vs. Unsatisfied

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Compare Mac and Windows System Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Compare Mac and Windows System - Essay Example These systems have been put up against each other over decades, and the debate seems destined to be eternal. Cost is key among the cited difference between MAC and Windows systems. Windows based computers tend to be cheaper than MAC computer. The cost difference is mainly because of the hardware running on these operating systems (Junior & Kumar, 2014). Apple has exclusive rights to the hardware produced that run on the MAC operating system. On the other hand, many manufacturers produce Windows-based system hardware. Therefore, unlike MAC systems hardware, with Windows based system hardware there is a great competition, which results in lower prices. Windows based systems allow the consumer to select the components they would like in their systems based on the price they are willing to pay for a system. The Windows systems are, therefore, budget-friendly to a wider range of consumers. Hence, they dominate the market. However, Apple’s consumer support is superb given that the quality of their products is among the best in the industry. Availability of the two system is also affected by manufacturers who produce the hardware. Windows systems are more widely available since different manufacturers push their products with Windows operating system installed. Apple; however, is selective about where it sells its products when it comes to third-party retail stores. The design is another big difference between Apple MAC and Microsoft Windows systems. In this aspect, MAC products tend to be superior. The unconventional focus on design by the former Apple CEO Steve Jobs explains this. He focused on the outward appearance of the company’s products with an enthusiasm unmatched by the competitors. Manufacturers of Windows based hardware often attempt to create more design-oriented models to compete with Apple products with none yet to achieve the popular

Friday, October 18, 2019

Stste the advantages and disadvantages of multiculturalism Essay

Stste the advantages and disadvantages of multiculturalism - Essay Example The greatest advantage of multiculturalism is that it promotes unity and oneness among people who belong to various cultures. Similarly, multiculturalism can effectively be used as a powerful tool to promote cultural dialogue among various cultural groups. It has also been pointed out that multiculturalism, when judiciously employed, can counter all sorts of segregation and discrimination that are likely to occur in a multicultural society. Similarly, multiculturalism best caters to the interests of the immigrant population. However there are many who hold that multicultural policies promote social segregation, social inequality, and racial or ethnic tensions within the nation. Opponents of multiculturalism strongly argue that it is likely to result in segregation, communal riots and cultural clashes. Therefore, it is imperative that proper multicultural education is imparted not only among students but also among the common population. Multiculturalism is to be viewed as a way of li fe rather than a policy that exhorts people to value and respect other cultures. Multiculturalism has become a much debated issue within political discourses and academic discussions. The term ‘multiculturalism’ in its usual sense refers to the concept of racial, cultural and ethnic diversity within a society or a nation. Many of the democratic countries have defined their own multicultural policies in order to maintain and promote cultural diversity and national integrity. Admitting the cultural, religious, racial and ethnic diversity as an undeniable part of the society governments have relied on the concept of multiculturalism which they believe would bring cultural equality and social cohesion. The proponents of multiculturalism argue that all cultures are of equal value and that fostering multiculturalism and diversity would enhance the unity and integration of the nation. However there are many who hold that multicultural policies promote social

The implication of diversity on human resource, organization,and Research Paper

The implication of diversity on human resource, organization,and stakeholders - Research Paper Example The main point to be noticed here is that numbers of minorities within the workforce who are qualified and educated have increased and this makes it compulsory for the organizations to attract, hire and recruit member of the workforce who are recognized as minority. Research has been conducted for several years and the results of these researches is that hiring individuals who represent the minority s not enough to achieve success and efficiency within the organization. Questions have even been raised against the effectiveness of the training programs of diversity implemented by organizations. Those organizations that fail to attain success in creating a diversified work environment have experienced the negative implications of diversity. Such events have been experienced by world’s top most organizations such as Wal-Mart and Coca-Cola (Samson 511). When organizations fail to integrate and attain diversity, they experience downsides such as law suits based on discrimination. T hose organizations that have been successful in integrating diversity have attained favorable results and rewards. The failure to achieve diversity and deal with diversity in an effective manner is a problematic situation for private firms and firms that contribute to the list of Fortune 500 companies. These issues have not even spared the public and the nonprofit sector which is already deeply concerned due to financial issues. These organizations are mostly held responsible for not spending money on the activities of human resource management such as training and development, hiring and retention. Problems will further elevate for these organizations as Baby Boomers will obtain retirement and a shortage in the workforce will be created. According to the conventional business case in the favor of diversity, organizations should manage their diverse workforce in an appropriate manner to attain competitive advantage over its competitors. This is very essential for organizations becau se the demographics of the workforce are changing on daily basis. According to Soni, during the period of 1990 the total workforce of US comprised of 73% white and 27% minority individuals, the statistics changed to 30% minority and 70% white individuals within a time frame of ten years (Soni, 2004) . This clearly shows that employers need to pay attention to the element of diversity as the minorities are becoming an integral part of the workforce. Various benefits of diversity have been realized by organizations, diversity helps an organization in achieving its aims and objectives. This happens because employees who belong to different cultures and society play a major ole in generation of ideas and solutions to issues experienced by organizations. Diversity will lead to creation of creative teams and creativity within teams will increase and this will lead to designing and development of creative products. Another major benefit of having a diversified workforce is that diverse wor kforce is able to attract diverse amount of customers (Champoux 30). Customers feel more relaxed and want to buy more from organizations that are able to understand what their needs and wants are. Diversified workforce is able to communicate with customers according to their cultural context which makes the customers feel comfortable as they are able to express their

Technology as Politics and Culture Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Technology as Politics and Culture - Essay Example Technology is useful in a lot of ways. Technology is playing a greater role in our lives with the passage of time and with time our awareness of its influence on our lives also vanishes and we just stop looking for alternative ways to do things. Scolve believes that its essential for people to seek for alternative technologies which would be more in line with our aspirations and ideals. Importance of polypotency of technology I think technologies in some way assist in regulating the social behaviors because technology is governed by political and physical laws. For example, technologies like X-ray machines and automobiles are legally regulated and if they are misused then that could result in a penalty enforced by society. Not just this, the penalty of misusing technology could also include systems failures and economic loss. This is how I think technology helps in structuring human behavior. Not only this, technology also has an impact on the third parties which are also known as it s spill over effects. Many examples can be included here. We can hear our neighbors playing their radios or using their lawn mowers. People living near an industrial facility breathe noxious fumes.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Analyzing the Movie Avatar Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Analyzing the Movie Avatar - Term Paper Example From Alien presentation to the grand military, from racial issues to excessive use of cigarettes, the movie has faced criticism on various topics. In short, Avatar is not only a manifestation but also an influence on the contemporary society. Starring Zoe Saldana, Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Michelle Rodriguez, Giovanni Ribisi, Joel David Moore, CCH Pounder, Peter Mensah, Laz Alonso, Wes Studi, Stephan Lang and Matt Gerald, this movie is a full time entertainment for its viewers for the span of two and a half hours. Synopsis of the Movie Avatar happens in the imaginary world of Pandora, which is created by James Cameron using digital hi-tech methods, which is occupied by incredible living beings and a local race of blue aliens named as Na’vi. The movie has been present in three dimensions which is a relatively new technology but the use of the 3D technology has been done without novelty. Twentieth Century Fox together with James Cameron, have made a movie which is in fa ct an experience, which cannot be pirated. A relatively large number of audiences are paying extra to watch the movie in 3D even numerous times on a monolithic IMAX screen. (Jesser. 152) The imaginary world of Avatar is somewhat evocative of imaginary virtual spaces like the second life, in both situations the people make use of avatars to go to the space, live there and act in an imaginary world. Avatar takes a step forward, and is able to fully transmit his consciousness into his own secondary living being, disposing off his weak and disabled body in the last moments of the movie. The association between the body and the avatar, the real and the imaginary spaces, is depicted in the movie although the avatars and the humans occupy the same planes of existence. Cameron has depicted a variety of styles and genres in the movie. It is no doubt an idea of post-colonialism: it portrays the Na’vi as the harmless and respectful population, while the humans are exposed as the corpora te military that leave their dying planet earth to excavate the precious resources of Pandora. The movie has presented an anti-war concept portraying the soldiers as cruel and brutal people who only aim to chase the company dollar. All soldiers are males except for a female pilot, who rejects the violent actions against the native population of the Na’vi. Many critiques have not mentioned the topic of gender in the movie but it is worth mentioning. Jake Sully is the main character of the movie who is a Marine. Because of his protagonist status, and that of his avatar, he is shown to negotiate between the masculine corporate structure and the feminine sphere of nature and science. The prominent scientist, played by Sigourney Weaver, is a biologist who is interested to have the samples from Pandora. Many critiques have attacked less relevantly on her cigarettes. She interacts with the natives to learn more about them in contrast to Sully, who approaches the world in his own nai ve and playful way. A female Na’vi acts like his guide in the film who guides him through the world. Sully and his avatar are soon introduced to the tribe of the Na’vi and promptly become the most competent of them. This plot is somewhat the reminiscent of the movies like â€Å"The last Samurai† and â€Å"Dances with Wolves†. (Wilhelm. 45) This kind of narrative is also considered to have the â€Å"white savior† theme, in which a dominant race member, often not

Water and human development (drinking water, sanitation) Essay

Water and human development (drinking water, sanitation) - Essay Example Most diseases causing deaths in developing countries are on sanitation. Diarrheal diseases such as typhoid, cholera, amoeba, and shigellosis among others are caused by poor water sanitation. Statistics show that 5000 children die every day as aresult of diarrheal diseases. This translates to every child dying in seventeen seconds. These death rates are because of inadequate sanitation and poor hygiene practices in developing countries. Poor sanitation has a direct link with economic growth of the country; A recent study shows that developing countries with improved sanitation achieved an annual economic growth of 3.7%, while on the other developing countries with poor sanitation, achieved only 0.7% economic growth (Chew 33). A sick society is unable to be effective in their work towards improving the economic status on their country. Most countries with water and sanitation problems spend most of their resources in treatment of diseases stemming from poor sanitation and poor hygiene practices. Accessible and affordable water is also essential in agricultural and livestock production. In the quest to reduce the disease burden stemming from poor sanitation, several institutions including states, non- governmental organizations and the private sector, have tried to come up with approaches to curb this. Kamar Kal invented an approach known as Community Lead Total Sanitation in his endeavour to promote sanitation and hygiene. The approach is based changing people’s behaviour toward achieving an Open Defecation Free society. Instead of building latrines for communities, it’s aimed at igniting change in communities through triggering.The approach uses shameful and disgusting examples, therefore,enabling people to realize the importance of an Open Defecation Free Society (Drew 76). Communities are also encouraged to use locally available materials to construct latrines. Since the invention of this method in Bangladesh,

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Analyzing the Movie Avatar Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Analyzing the Movie Avatar - Term Paper Example From Alien presentation to the grand military, from racial issues to excessive use of cigarettes, the movie has faced criticism on various topics. In short, Avatar is not only a manifestation but also an influence on the contemporary society. Starring Zoe Saldana, Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Michelle Rodriguez, Giovanni Ribisi, Joel David Moore, CCH Pounder, Peter Mensah, Laz Alonso, Wes Studi, Stephan Lang and Matt Gerald, this movie is a full time entertainment for its viewers for the span of two and a half hours. Synopsis of the Movie Avatar happens in the imaginary world of Pandora, which is created by James Cameron using digital hi-tech methods, which is occupied by incredible living beings and a local race of blue aliens named as Na’vi. The movie has been present in three dimensions which is a relatively new technology but the use of the 3D technology has been done without novelty. Twentieth Century Fox together with James Cameron, have made a movie which is in fa ct an experience, which cannot be pirated. A relatively large number of audiences are paying extra to watch the movie in 3D even numerous times on a monolithic IMAX screen. (Jesser. 152) The imaginary world of Avatar is somewhat evocative of imaginary virtual spaces like the second life, in both situations the people make use of avatars to go to the space, live there and act in an imaginary world. Avatar takes a step forward, and is able to fully transmit his consciousness into his own secondary living being, disposing off his weak and disabled body in the last moments of the movie. The association between the body and the avatar, the real and the imaginary spaces, is depicted in the movie although the avatars and the humans occupy the same planes of existence. Cameron has depicted a variety of styles and genres in the movie. It is no doubt an idea of post-colonialism: it portrays the Na’vi as the harmless and respectful population, while the humans are exposed as the corpora te military that leave their dying planet earth to excavate the precious resources of Pandora. The movie has presented an anti-war concept portraying the soldiers as cruel and brutal people who only aim to chase the company dollar. All soldiers are males except for a female pilot, who rejects the violent actions against the native population of the Na’vi. Many critiques have not mentioned the topic of gender in the movie but it is worth mentioning. Jake Sully is the main character of the movie who is a Marine. Because of his protagonist status, and that of his avatar, he is shown to negotiate between the masculine corporate structure and the feminine sphere of nature and science. The prominent scientist, played by Sigourney Weaver, is a biologist who is interested to have the samples from Pandora. Many critiques have attacked less relevantly on her cigarettes. She interacts with the natives to learn more about them in contrast to Sully, who approaches the world in his own nai ve and playful way. A female Na’vi acts like his guide in the film who guides him through the world. Sully and his avatar are soon introduced to the tribe of the Na’vi and promptly become the most competent of them. This plot is somewhat the reminiscent of the movies like â€Å"The last Samurai† and â€Å"Dances with Wolves†. (Wilhelm. 45) This kind of narrative is also considered to have the â€Å"white savior† theme, in which a dominant race member, often not

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Critically discuss this statement, indicating to what extent you agree Essay

Critically discuss this statement, indicating to what extent you agree with it - Essay Example Firstly, there should be a distinction on what is accepted as perception. In this case, the law should clearly define what would qualify as a perception which may warrant compensation. The second issue concerns what would be deemed as a liability arising from the damage. In this case, there should be limits which are spelled out in regards to liability. The third aspect of the law entails what is known as the threshold which concerns the recovery made as a result of a claim or legal suit. The following discourse seeks to prove that the sentiments by Lord Oliver are true. The law on psychiatric damage is paradoxical. It seeks to protect the victim while at the same time puts caution on the kind of claim that can be sought by the victim. The objective of the law is to accord justice to all people irrespective of creed or personal influence1. The law carefully outlines what ‘damage’ in case of psychiatric pain is. The damage defined by the law states that is should not have been inflicted by a physical pain. This implies that for one to be eligible for consideration of a claim for any form of psychiatric damage, it should not be a physical injury. This is the paradox that surrounds the law on negligence in relation to causes of psychiatric damage. Such a situation evokes different reactions from law and policy makers. In fact, it makes one understand the sentiments, ‘I cannot, for my part, regard the present state of the law as either entirely satisfactory or as logically defensible’ (Alcock and Others v Chief Constable of the South Yorkshire Police [1992] PIQR 1, 26. When it comes to negligence that leads to medical conditions, the law is a bit clear. However, when it comes to psychiatric damage, the law tends to be a bit ambiguous. For instance, the law defines forms of injury as those that can be proven medically. However, in technical terms, a mental damage can be so abstract to even have a medical proof. The human psychology is a

Monday, October 14, 2019

Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of Pakistan

Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of Pakistan Natural disasters are an increasingly phenomena that we all evidently observe and identify that may have a direct bang on the interests of an area where it hits and also on explicit domestic meters in such areas. Depending of where we live, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc, are intimidation to living, belongings, industrious assets, and also can have an impact on societal pointers. The increasing occurrence of natural disasters is extremely interrelated to the increasing susceptibility of homes and communities in emergent nations, as earlier socioeconomic vulnerabilities may aggravate the shock of a natural disaster, making harder the course of revitalization (Vatsa and Krimgold, 2000). Therefore, the impact of such events could consequence in an instant raise in poverty and deficiency (Carter et al, 2007). The literature has been still conflicting to a few amounts. For example Benson and Clay (2003) have discussed that the long-standing shock on development of natural disasters is depressing, at the same time as Skidmore and Toya (2002) explain that such tragedy may upbeat impact development in the long run as there is a decrease to returns on physical assets but a boost in human capital, leading to advanced development. Strobl (2008) for the US coastal areas discover that tornados reduce countys development originally by 0.8 per cent, whereas getting your str ength back after in 0.2 per cent. This writer also figures out for Central America and the Caribbean that the impact from a critical cyclone is a diminution of 0.8 percent of development (Strobl, 2008a). The impact of a natural disaster may also origin discriminations. The poor, who undergo from profits rise and fall, and also have imperfect access to monetary services, in the consequences of a disaster may be extra flat to lessen use and have a declining upset in other domestic indicators as a result. Additionally, there are a many non poor, or close to be, who are not insured in opposition to such threats, and then may plunge into scarcity as result of recapitalizing when dealing with with the upset, depending the shock and probability of diminishing into scarcity of the original stock assets and coping means. Furthermore, susceptibility to natural disasters is a multifaceted issue, as it is strong-minded by the financial structure, the phase of growth, prevailing of communal and fiscal conditions, coping means, risk evaluation, rate of recurrence and concentration of catastrophes, etc. The impact on deprived ones could be losing contact with a few vital services, reversals in accretion of corporeal and human funds, and possibly an augment in child employment and unlawful behavior. Lindell and Prater (2003) summarize the significance of shaping the impact and the pretentious agents in natural disasters. First, that information is helpful for policy makers, as they can be acquainted with the need for peripheral support and which may be more efficient; second, definite sections of affected can be acknowledged, e.g. how low income families are affected; and third, it may be also practical for setting up assistance for natural disasters and the latent results. Overall, growing literature has emerged over the last few years on the macroeconomic and development impacts of natural disasters. Amusingly, there is as up till now no harmony on whether disasters are significant from a macroeconomic point of view, and two situations can be identified. The first believes natural disasters a hinder for economic development and is well symbolized by the following reference: It has been argued that although individuals are risk-averse, governments should take a risk-neutral stance. The reality of developing countries suggests otherwise. Government decisions should be based on the opportunity costs to society of the resources invested in the project and on the loss of economic assets, functions and products. In view of the responsibility vested in the public sector for the administration of scarce resources, and considering issues such as fiscal debt, trade balances, income distribution, and a wide range of other economic and social, and political concerns, governments should not act risk neutral (OAS, 1991). The other position sees disasters as entailing little growth implications and consider disasters and their reduction a problem of, but not for development (e.g. Albala-Bertrand, 1993, 2006; Caselli and Malhotra, 2004). These authors find natural disasters do not negatively affect GDP and if anything, GDP growth is improved (Albala-Bertrand, 1993: 207). This paper can be understood as an attempt at reconciling this body of literature. There are two entry points for the analysis. The first is to look at counterfactual vs. observed GDP, the second entry point is to assess disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets (human, produced, intangible), and, importantly vulnerability. Overall, the evidence reveals adverse macroeconomic consequences of disasters on GDP. In a medium-term analysis, natural disasters on average seem to lead to negative effects on GDP. The negative effects may be small, yet they can become more pronounced depending on the size of the shock. We tested a large number of vulnerability predictors and found that higher aid rates as well as higher remittances lessen the adverse macroeconomic consequences, while capital stock loss is the most important predictor for the negative consequences. In July-August 2010, Pakistan experienced the worst floods in its history The floods have affected 84 districts out of a total 121 districts in Pakistan, and more than 20 million people one-tenth of Pakistans population More than 1,700 men, women and children have lost their lives, and at least 1.8 million homes have been damaged or destroyed (UN 2010, p.1). In attacking poverty in developing countries, due considerations need to be paid to the vulnerability of households against natural disasters. Poor households are likely to suffer not only from low income and consumption on average but also from fluctuations of their welfare once such disasters occur. These households are vulnerable to a decline in their welfare level because they have limited ability to cope with shocks and also they are subject to substantial shocks, such as weather variability (Dercon, 2005; Fafchamps, 2003). This concern has led to an emerging literature on vulnerability measures in development economics (Ligon and Schechter, 2003; 2004; Kamanou and Morduch, 2005; Calvo and Dercon, 2005; Kurosaki 2006a). We broadly think people as vulnerable when (i) they cannot mitigate income volatility and (ii) their consumption expenditure is volatile over time (they lack reliable coping mechanisms). Vulnerability is thus a forward-looking concept. As an example of low-income countries subject to substantial vulnerability, this paper examines the case of Pakistan. Pakistan is located in South Asia, where more than 500million people or about 40% were estimated to live below the poverty line at the turn of the century (World Bank, 2001). Economic development in South Asia has been characterized by a moderate success in economic growth with a substantial failure in human development such as basic health, education and gender equality (Dr`eze and Sen, 1995). This characteristic is most apparent in Pakistan (World Bank, 2002). Although the overall economic growth rates were improved during the 2000s, poverty reduction was slower than expected. Using a two period panel dataset spanning three years from the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), one of the four provinces comprising Pakistan, Kurosaki (2006a) and Kurosaki (2006b) show that rural households were indeed vulnerable to substantial welfare fluctuations. Using a three-year pan el dataset from Pakistans Punjab, Kurosaki (1998) shows that farmers consumption was excessively sensitive to idiosyncratic shocks to their non-farm income. Similar findings have been accumulated for rural India as well (Townsend, 1994; Kurosaki 2001). The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impacts of disasters and locates the proposed analysis within the disaster risk management paradigm. In section 3, we present the data and methodology used for projecting the economic impacts for a medium term horizon (up to 5 years after an event), as well as the regression analysis used for identifying predictor variables explaining potential impacts. Section 4 ends with a discussion of possible implications of our analysis. Literature Review The literature on impacts of natural disasters and economic effects is still inadequate and can be separated generally into three different categories. One part of the literature has focused on how several factors intensify susceptibility to natural events. They have maintained a natural vulnerability framework in view of climate change, deforestation and geophysical factors (McGuire, Mason and Kilburn, 2002), other than rising urbanization which brings ecological risks and exposure to threats from deficiency of sufficient urban development and dual political discourse (Pelling, 2003 and 2003a), or even environmental immediacy to exposure, access to property and public conveniences as well as political and social networks (Bosher, 2007). All these parts become a thread to population, their assets and possessions and their dynamic competence, becoming then an expected risk. And when such danger is realized, then it turns out to be a natural adversity (see McGuire, Mason and Kilburn, 2002). Although this thread of the literature distinguishes that such risk factors influence the impact of the natural tragedy, they just briefly point out essentially the number of losses, or some irregular overheads. A second thread of the literature spotlights on the impact of natural disasters on macroeconomic pointers. Auffret (2003) examined the impact of natural catastrophe on Latin America and the Caribbean, and figured out the impact very considerable, particularly for the Caribbean, where the explosive nature of expenditure is higher than in other parts of the world, where insufficient risk-management instruments have been available in the region. This part of the literature has been still conflicting to some extent. For example Benson and Clay (2003) have also explained that the lasting impact of natural events on economic development of any country is negative, while Skidmore and Toya (2002) reveal that such tragedies may also have a constructive impact in the future growth, resulting from a decrease to returns to physical assets but an enlargement in human capital. Strobl (2008) discovers for the US coastal counties that cyclones cut districts intensification at first by 0.8 per cent, at the same time as recuperating after in 0.2 per cent. This writer also figures out for Central America and the Caribbean that the impact from a unhelpful storm is a decline of 0.8 percent of fiscal increase (Strobl, 2008a). When investigating what extra features cut or amplify the impact of such natural tragedies on macro pointers, Kahn (2005) and Toya and Skidmore (2007) explain that organizations, top education and trade openness, in addition to well-built economic segment and smaller governments are significant aspects in shaping the impact that natural events have on growth at global level. The third tributary of the literature takes care of the impact and coping means for such tragic events generally at the domestic and township levels. At this point, natural adversities are upsets that family units have to face as they are unpleasant proceedings leading to a decline in earnings or utilization, and in addition a loss in industrious property. Alderman et al (2006) by means of data for family units in Zimbabwe spotlighted on height growth of kids as result of a deficiency and civil war in Zimbabwe, result that kids influenced by such upsets have less schooling and could have been tall; if not. Dercon (2004) focused on development in utilization amongst family units in chosen villages in Ethiopia, and did not discover that upsets have an effect in the diminution of assets. Carter et al (2007) examined the impact of droughts in Ethiopia and of cyclone Mitch in Honduras on development of belongings at the village level. For Ethiopia they uncover a model of assets leveling between low income family units, i.e. such families keep hold of their assets even they are little in phases where profits and usage drops off, for instance the big deficiency aroused. They discover for Honduran families that comparatively well-off families recovered earlier from the upset than short income households, and that a poverty corner is put below a specified point of income. Baez and Santos (2007) also examined the sound effects of Mitch on households pointers, discovering no outcome on school admissions of kids, but a noteworthy add to their labor contribution. Others have investigated how some coping methods inside families have an effect on revival from a shock resulting from such an adversity. De Janvry et al (2006) explains that uncertain cash transfer accessibility before a disaster provide as a shelter for those who are affected, while those dependent and helpless people utilize as coping method an add to child labor, and savings in food and school expenses. Alpizar (2007) also discovers that access to proper economic services takes the edge off pessimistic outcomes from natural disaster upsets for farmers in El Salvador, as it leads to further proficient production. On the other hand, a less urbanized region is the impact at local level. Yamano et al (2007) explain about industries and production. These writers makes use of region-wise data for employment and production, guessing that financial fatalities are not in proportion to the sharing of manufacturing activities and people attention, signifying that strategies to improve losses should be measured from a top order. Burrus et al (2002) also examined how low intensity typhoons can shock local financial systems from side to side interruption of actions. They exercise statistics from the local Chambers of Commerce surveys and as a result of their regularity the bang could be a decrease between 0.8 and 1.23 per cent of yearly production and up to 1.6 per cent of local employment. Though, there is a slit in the study of how local communal indicators are exaggerated by natural events. This is significant to bring to the front as the effects give the impression of being stretch around all unlike points, macro, micro and local, and how strategies to deal with those upsets can be premeditated in a good way. Whereas families emerge as the natural component of investigation for researching the consequences of natural disasters, it can also seem right to balance the study up as families react to risks are frequently influenced by the broader strategy framework. Certainly, households have substantial and insubstantial assets at their clearance, and their capability to preserve or gather together such assets in such situations will be produced by the arrangements and procedures for instance governance and institutional planning, broader strategies and open circumstances at metropolitan and district level. Additionally, the experience of family units to danger loss can and has been conventionally balanced up to top levels of aggregation (UNDP, 2008). It is the number of citizens situated in definite parts joint with the individual, material and ecological conditions of families and the regions where they live that forms their communal potential to deal with a natural disaster. For that reason, we refer to the community level of study while thinking of the inferences that dangers can have. Governments have a tendency to go on board in various approaches to deal with natural happenings. In the past, they have usually reacted through disaster relief, but more lately there has been a propensity to highlight cash transfers as well. Even if both methods are adopted extra efficiency could be consummate by adopting danger diminution and improvement means that deal with the structural aspects which make families more uncovered to natural risks. Having system in position previous to the awareness of dangers is primary. At the macro level, premature warning systems and the public disaster-preparedness agenda look as if mostly significant, so as sufficient economic assets to promote revival, over and above tax inducements for households or public to take on mitigation procedures. Another type of protecting the value of material goods at the macro level could be through financial diversification. Increasing primary, secondary and tertiary sector activities along with spatial activities in the economy, can offer an open pool to multiply the risk of anguish danger losses, and extra prospects to amplify and steady profits. Equally, the concentration of financial and sector-wise activities would be reliable with condensed capability of families to administer and react to natural disasters. Still, there is a set of insubstantial facts which might improve the family hard work to get through the outcome of natural vulnerability on them, just as adverse socio-economic opportunities. The political economy and organizational aspects of the situation where assets are positioned together with the system of belief, norm and ideas set in the activities of communities members might bear out elementary while utilizing and mobilizing assets for confronting disasters. If possible, one should be capable to clarify how civilization and supremacy provision come into play when they act together with the broader surroundings of risks, assets and wellbeing results. However, most of these features will be tough to get into work empirically for the period of our technical study. Flourishing coping against natural disasters is difficult to achieve in a situation of small efficiency, staled financial development, not having access to industrious possessions, deficiency of economic reserves and safety nets in place, and broad difference crossways geographic, financial, or tribal lines. Lack of health conveniences, remoteness and low rate of education may also complex these susceptibility. Consequently, the covariate life of various natural hazards and the policy-tempted macro circumstances upsetting the rate and likelihood of effectively coping with them might reflect unreliable welfare shocks across region and sub-region levels. At last, societies can make worse these natural, site and practice-specific aspects through not making any investment in substantial and communal infrastructure at the household and district level (roads and bridges). In case of rural areas, these deficiencies can be multifaceted by a high frequency of hazards because of being covered hazard-prone areas, extending the vulnerability of families to experience any losses. Although the impact a natural disaster is an outside factor, susceptibility of causes, making the shock of the event high or low, is not. Susceptibility to natural hazards is a composite subject, as it is determined by the monetary model, the phase of growth, current social and fiscal situation, coping means, risk evaluation, rate of recurrence and greatness of hazards, etc. Lindell and Prater (2003) summarize the significance of shaping the impact and the influenced agents in natural hazards. First, that information is helpful for policy makers, as they can recognize the need for outside support and which may be extra effectual. Second, exact sections of affected can be recognized, e.g. how short income families are influenced, uniqueness of regions etc; and third, it may be also helpful for setting up backing for natural hazards and the possible penalty. They also summarize how the impact of natural hazards should consider other means. One of the main questions concerning the impact of natural hazards on families or towns is how accidental they may be. Donner (2007) examined the effects of hurricanes in the US and figured out that the effects are not accidental, because some aspects such as ecological, society, demographic, and scientific, have an occurrence on the impact of such events. On the whole the flow of impact of natural hazards can be sketched as in Figure 1. figure1.PNG Figure 1. Model of Disaster Impact Other aspect is how establishment have defined practices concerning natural events and how they systematize help in the outcome can also be determinant of the crash. Such as, Peacok and Girard (1997) explain how the revitalization process after tornado in Florida was determined more by governmental obstructions rather than lack of resources. Limited Literature is available which studies the quantitative relationship between the economy and the natural disasters. Zarrar et al (2009) studied the impact of natural disasters on the Irans Gross domestic product. They adopted a auto regressive distributed Lag model in order to study the impact. The findings showed that natural disasters have negative impact on the GDP per capita and on Per captia investment. The result of the model test was that investment had a positive impact on the economy while negative impact on GDP from the damages from the loss of Physical capital. Macro economic variables determine the impact of these natural disasters on the long run economic growth. Aaron (2007) found that financial crises caused by these disasters hurt the long run growth through inflation. This inflation is the result of increased debt burden. Other reason for this inflation could be that central bank print excess notes to pay the external and internal debt. Also the tax collection is also affected which hurdles the government efforts in compensating the losses. However the loss in revenue is compensated by the help of the Loans and aid given by the international institutions. They include the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Union. These loans and aid influence the economic growth in the short as well as the in the long run. Pelling (2002) in his work identified that the most important macroeconomic impact of natural disaster can be studied by examining the inflation trends in the economy. More over the public expenditures by the government and the aid flowing as foreign direct investment influences the GDP growth rate. The used a comparative analysis technique of comparing different case studies to determine the macro-economic effects. These effects are measured by plotting the trends in GDP against macro economic factors i.e Inflation ,FDI and Loans. The literature review discusses the direct and indirect impact of economic variables on the economy. However in this research work only the impact of macro economic variables is studied. From the support of Literature review the macro economic variables which can be used to measure the quantitative impact of natural disasters on the GDP growth of Pakistan are Inflation, Internal and external debts, Foreign Aid and foreign direct investment flowing in the country. In next section of research we will take into account the above macroeconomic variables with the purpose of concluding the impact of natural disasters on the economy of Pakistan. Methodology Research Type In order to identify the macroeconomic effects of disasters, we suggest comparing a counterfactual situation ex-post to the observed state of the system ex-post. This involves assessing the potential trajectory (projected unaffected economy without disaster) versus the observed state of the economy. This contrasts with observing economic performance post-event and actual performance pre-event, as usually done in similar analysis. Our analysis requires projecting economic development into a future without an event. In short, the type of research would be purely Quantitative. Sources of Data Our two main sources of Data are: The open-source EMDAT disaster database (CRED, 2008) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Università © Catholique de Louvain. The proprietary Munich Re NatCat Service database. Data type and Research Periods Our sample consists of all major natural disaster events during 1950-2010. The sample is based on information from two databases and was compiled by Okuyama (2009) with the threshold for a large event defined arbitrarily to a loss exceeding 1 percent of GDP.One database is the open-source EMDAT disaster database (CRED, 2008) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Università © Catholique de Louvain. Primary data are compiled for various purposes, such as informing relief and reconstruction requirements internationally or nationally, and data are generally collected from various sources and, including UN agencies, non-governmental organizations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies. The other database is the proprietary Munich Re NatCat Service database, which mainly serves to inform insurance and reinsurance pricing. We focus on the monetary losses. In both datasets, loss data follow no uniform definition and are collected for different purposes such as assessing donor needs for relief and reconstruction, assessing potential impacts on economic aggregates and defining insurance losses. We distinguish between sudden and slow onset events. Key sudden-onset events are extreme geotectonic events (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, slow mass movements) and extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods and winter storms. Slow-onset natural disasters are either of a periodically recurrent or permanent nature; these are droughts and desertification. We broadly associate the loss data with asset losses, i.e. damages to produced capital. This is a simplification, as indirect impacts, such as business interruption, may also be factored into the data. Yet, generally, at least for the sudden onset events, analysts generally equate the data with asset losses, and an indication that this assumption can be maintained is the fact that loss data are usually relatively quickly available after a catastrophe, which indicates that flow impacts emanating over months to years are usually not considered. Losses are compared to estimates of capital stock from Sanderson and Striessnig (2009), which estimated stocks using the perpetual inventory method based on Penn World table information on investments starting in 1900 and assuming annual growth and depreciation of 4 percent. Theoretical Framework and variables under consideration Theoretical Framework to be used in this essay to explain Economical Impacts on Pakistan due to Natural Disasters. Economical Impacts GDP Exposure Socioeconomic Susceptibility Direct Risks Produced Resources Environment Resources Human Resources Type of Hazard Physical Susceptibility Risk Management The literature on the monetary impacts explained can be associated with framework above. Independent Variables: Independent Determinants of such impacts and dangers can be renowned as: Hazard Variable: This variable is related to the type of Natural disaster/Hazard that jolts any part of Pakistan. Exposure: This variable deals with the geographical area and spatial scale of impact from the particular disaster. Economical Structure: This variable deals with the overall structure of the economy in the country and in particular region affected by the disaster (if needed). Development: This determinant deals with risks that might directly or indirectly affect the stage of the development of the country. Socioeconomic Environment: It is related to the current socioeconomic conditions in the country. Risk Management: This takes care of the availability of formal and informal mechanisms to share risks in a particular part of the country. The last four variables are related to economic susceptibility. Research Hypothesis H0: Natural Disasters do not have any significant negative follow-on effects on the economy of Pakistan. H1: Natural Disasters do have significant negative follow-on effects on the economy of Pakistan. Techniques We use autoregressive integrated moving average models, also called ARIMA (p,d,q) (Box and Jenkins, 1976) for forecasting GDP into the future after the disaster event. ARIMA modeling approaches are chosen because they are sufficiently general to handle virtually all empirically observed patterns and often used for GDP forecasting (see for example Abeysinghe and Rajaguru, 2004). While such a type of modeling may be criticized for its black box approach (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989), it here serves well due to the large number of projections to be made and the difficulty identifying suitable economic model approaches. The ARIMA process Recall, an autoregressive process of order AR (p) can be defined as x t = à Ã¢â‚¬  1x tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 + à Ã¢â‚¬  2x tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2 ++ à Ã¢â‚¬  px tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢p + ÃŽÂ µt A moving-average process of order MA (q) may be written as xt =ÃŽÂ µ t +ÃŽÂ ¸1ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 +ÃŽÂ ¸ 2ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2 +à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦+ÃŽÂ ¸ qÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢q and an ARMA(p,q) process, with p autoregressive and q moving average terms can be defined to be xt =à Ã¢â‚¬  1xtà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 ++à Ã¢â‚¬   p xtà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ p +ÃŽÂ µ t +ÃŽÂ ¸1ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 ++ÃŽÂ ¸ qÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢q Where à Ã¢â‚¬   and ÃŽÂ ¸ are parameters to be estimated and ÃŽÂ µ are white noise stochastic error terms. Now, let yt be a non-stationary series and define the first order regular difference of yt as Άyt = yt à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ytà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 or more generally using a back-shift operator denoted as Bk zt = ztà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢k yt B d yt Άd = (1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ) An ARIMA (p,d,q) model can then be expressed as yt q B t B B d à Ã¢â‚¬   p ( )(1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ) =ÃŽÂ ¸ ( )ÃŽÂ µ with B p à Ã¢â‚¬   p (B) = 1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ Ã¢â‚¬  1B à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ Ã¢â‚¬   p and Bq ÃŽÂ ¸ q (B) = 1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸1B à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸ q Data Analysis The Box-Jenkins methodology (Box and Jenkins, 1976) is applied for determining the components of the ARIMA process; i.e. we test different ARIMA(p,d,q) models with p and q to be smaller or equal 4 (due to the limited amount of data) and estimate à Ã¢â‚¬   and ÃŽÂ ¸ using Maximum likelihood techniques and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as well as diagnostic checks to detect a suitable model. The data requirements were set thus that at least 5 observed data points are needed for projections into the future. This is the smallest number of observations which are needed to estimate ARIMA (4,1,4) models (however, the majority of the sample (greater 90 percent) has at least 10 data points). Furthermore, all models are tested to be stationary (usually d=1 suffices to assure a stationary process) and all series are demeaned. To include uncertainty in the projections, also 95 percent confidence forecasts were calculated and analyzed. Forecasts into the future are performed with the selected models and then compared to the observed variables. Increases or decreases of GDP in future years are measured as a percentage increase or decrease to baseline GDP (i.e., baseline =100) which is defined to be GDP a year before the disaster event. Furthermore, the differences between observed values and projected ones are calculated and called Diff(t), which indicates the percentage difference between the observed and projected value of GDP in year t. We focus on projections with a medium term perspective (up to 5 years into the future). This limitation is due to important data constraints for the ARIMA models within

Sunday, October 13, 2019

Impact of Foreign Remittances on Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction

INTRODUCTION: Remittances typically refer to transfers of money by foreign workers to their home countries. Remittances are not a new phenomenon in the world, being a normal associated to migration which has always been a part of human history. Remittances are playing an important role in the economies of many developing and low income countries. Pakistan is a labour abundant country; hence, as neoclassical theory shows, if workers are unable to find jobs and/or wages to satisfy their needs, they will look elsewhere. Pakistan’s history provides us with a new trend of emigration nearly each decade. Remittance is an important source of foreign exchange earnings for Pakistan since 1970. During the past four decade Pakistan received significant amount of remittances, however, fluctuation were also observed in the inflow of remittances. Inflow of remittances affects economic growth positively by reducing current account deficit, improving the balance of payment position and reducing dependence o n external borrowing (Iqbal and Sttar, 2005). Pakistan like other developing countries in the world is known for its high migration and workers’ remittance. It is argued that this high migration is the result of poor economic conditions of the country because the economy is facing so many problems like unemployment, illiteracy, poverty, inflation, and terrorism etc. The people of Pakistan are migrating to foreign countries in search of job and to change their living standards. It is also argued that due to the high level of unemployment individuals are going abroad to get the employment and livelihood for their family and this unemployment is creating the problem of brain drain. The effect of remittances is not only multidimensional but in ... ...A.(2012), â€Å"Worker’s Remittances and Economic Growth in South Asia†,MPRA Paper 39001, University Library of Munich, Germany. Katsushi, S. I., Raghav, G.,Abdilahi, A., and Nidhi Kaicker,(2011), "Remittances, Growth and Poverty: New Evidence from Asian Countries," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-30, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. Levine, R. (1997), â€Å"Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda† Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688–72. Qayyum,A., Javid,M., and Arif,U.(2008), â€Å"Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth and Poverty: Evidence from Pakistan†,MPRA Paper 22941, University Library of Munich, Germany. Siddiqi,R., and Kemal,A. R.,(2006,â€Å"Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis,"PIDE-Working Papers 2006:1.